BRILLIANT ALLAWI BLUEPRINT FOR PEACE IN IRAQ

(NOTE: The author of the Blueprint for Peace is not the CIA trained former Prime Minister Iyad (Ayad) Allawi.)

Published today in the Independent (UK), former Iraqi Defense Minister Ali Allawi's coherent plan begins by finally stating the obvious:

“The Iraqi state that was formed in the aftermath of the First World War has come to an end. Its successor state is struggling to be born in an environment of crises and chaos. The collapse of the entire order in the Middle East now threatens as the Iraq imbroglio unleashes forces in the area that have been gathering in virulence over the past decades.

It took the American-led invasion and occupation of Iraq, and the mismanagement of the country by both the Coalition Provisional Administration and subsequent Iraqi governments, to bring matters to this dire situation.

What was supposed to be a straightforward process of overthrowing a dictatorship and replacing it with a liberal-leaning and secular democracy under the benign tutelage of the United States, has instead turned into an existential battle for identity, power and legitimacy that is affecting not only Iraq, but the entire tottering state system in the Middle East.”

Allawi intelligently recognizes that the chaos in Iraq is actually the chaos in the entire Middle East, whose weak foundations have been shattered by the illegal invasion orchestrated by the Madman President. Bush's vision of securing amurkan energy while bringing on the Rapture is clinically insane, as is the large portion of amurka who nearly choked on this pretzeline logic.

But Allawi has opened the gates of rational policy analysis, and while this Plan is only an opening to the debate, it is the first intelligent discussion i have seen. While the key players will surely debate the specifics, i have seen no finer foundation on which to debate the solution to the chaos that is what amurka brought to the land of the sand and the home of the oil.

As Allawi so clearly states, the nearly one hundred year “system, carved out of the wreckage of the Ottoman Empire” was held together by “foreign occupation, outside meddling, brutal dictatorships, and minority rule.” It is indeed this underlying horror unleashed by the PNAC fantasy.

Allawi then details the situation on the ground with a precision perhaps found only within the erudite halls of scholarly Mid-East policy analysts, but which nevertheless rings clearly with the power of insight. The upshot of his analysis, however, is chilling. The region will explode in a crossfire of religious, tribal, economic and political violence crossing all the borders of the Mid-East, including Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iran.

He predicts that with a Shia ascendency in Iraq will come an equal and opposite repression in the lands where Shia remain minorities, similar to the “pattern that accompanied the Saudi-led campaign to contain the Iranian revolution of the 1980s.”

There is far more detail in the original, which deserve to understood and debated. But far more important is the precision with which Allawi Blueprints the steps and framework necessary to provide a path out of the miasma. I await the verdict of wise men like Robert Fisk on the Plan, but the detail in Allawi's vision is a true opportunity to end the madness.

Allawi's solution begins:

“It requires genuine vision and statesmanship to pull the Middle East from its death spiral. The elements of a possible solution are there if the will exists to postulate an alternative to the politics of fear, bigotry and hatred.

The first step must be the recognition that the solution to the Iraq crisis must be generated first internally, and then, importantly, at the regional level. The two are linked and the successful resolution of one would lead to the other.

No foreign power, no matter how benevolent, should be allowed to dictate the terms of a possible historic and stable settlement in the Middle East. No other region of the world would tolerate such a wanton interference in its affairs.”

Bush's mad vision is over. Announced only after the Democrats have formally retaken Congress, Allawi uses diplomatic-speak to drive a stake into the heart of the Bush Doctrine. He acknowledges legitimate amurkan interests in the region, “but the future of the area should not be held hostage to their designs and exclusive interests.”

His major points must be examined in detail, and fleshed out out over months and years of regional negotiation, which process alone will change the region. Summarizing, all the forces unleashed by the invasion must be taken into account, while the forces must accept limits as well. Shia and Kurd will have their day, but only if they accept limits. Sunni must be assured that they will not be marginalized; behind all of this is a serious program of revenue-sharing.

And finally, as continuing chaos will inexorably spill over Iraq's border, there must be a regional administration of the entire process. Turkey, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and the other at-risk states will have to join in a regional administration of the process, without which they will remain threatened.

Initially the soution would become a decentralized Iraqi state supported in power and resources, focused upon the equitable sharing of oil revenue, enforced in a form of federalism. Then comes the zinger:

“The second essential outcome would be a treaty that would establish a confederation or constellation of states of the Middle East, initially including Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan. The main aim of the confederation would be to establish a number of conventions and supra-regional bodies that would have the effect of acting as guarantors of civil, minority and community rights.”

From this beginning, there is always the possibility for the evolution of something approaching the European Union for the Middle East. This is perhaps the most visionary part of Allawi's plan. In fact, he details how this could evolve, and why it is indeed necessary.

He admits to one of the two elephants in the room. Allawi does not believe the US can be ignored in this process just because it has so catastrophically failed to date, admitting amurka “is still the most powerful actor.” But he does politely stick the knife in Bush's insanity, stating, “ Whatever project (the US) had for Iraq has vanished, a victim of inappropriate or incoherent policies, and the violent upending of Iraq's power structures.”

Allawi does not, however, address the other elephant in the room, the Palestine-Israel madness. When the regional proposals address this issue, then there could well be real progress in the Middle East. But check out the Allawi proposals in detail, and see if you don't agree it's the most heartening news to come out of the miasma since Murtha opened the door for the intrusion of reality.

ONE FINAL IMPRESSION:

That Allawi has beaten Bush to the punch, publishing his Blueprint for Peace before Bush announces his surgescalation, is not to be lost upon the faint-hearted amurkan pundits pundicrying about the change in Congress, Bush's new program, his WSJ editorial, and the rest of the Rovian timetable. Whatever is really behind the Plan, Allawi simply changed the rules of Rove's media game before Rove knew what hit him. Imagine this plan circulating throughout the world, and then Bush announces a new version of more death and "willful ignorance?"

At the very least, Allawi has introduced to the debate a concrete plan to get the occupiers out of Iraq, or as we say, to bring the troops home.

(Ed. note: this is an unedited post, posted in haste because of the importance of Allawi's proposals in changing the terms of the debate. It will likely be rewritten to allow for more detailed analysis.